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Analyzing the Impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom and the European Union
More than 40 years after the United Kingdom (UK) joined the European Union (EU), the possibility of the UK stopping being a member of the European club gained traction. Brexit – a portmanteau, derived from “British” and “exit” – refers to the withdrawal of the UK from the EU. The process has become the defining political issue of a generation. The economic, social, cultural, and political effects will continue to be felt both domestically and internationally for years to come. As the remainder of this detailed analysis will testify, it is a complex, multifaceted issue with far-reaching implications across numerous fields of life and society in the UK and beyond. The febrile context in which the decision was taken, combined with a cumbersome and at times fractious negotiating process, makes fitting conclusions difficult to draw.
This report examines the perceived and evident consequences of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. It draws on a range of sources to evidence the magnitude of the consequences and the varying perspectives on Brexit. In order to elucidate the consequences, a brief historical context is provided of Brexit’s antecedents and the principal actors in the process so far. The report is divided into two sections. Section 1 is dedicated to the discussion of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. It will examine the historical context of Brexit, the decision to hold a referendum in 2016, and the subsequent process by which the UK left the supranational body. The analysis will also cover the key players in the decision-making process and the ongoing effects of the withdrawal. Section 1 provides a discussion of Brexit’s domestic impact on the UK’s public institutions as well as foreign policy. Particular attention will be given to the effect of the departure of the UK on the other members of the EU.
Brexit will bring with it many changes, both political and economic, to the EU and UK. Summarizing recent economic reports on Brexit, the UK is thinking about an increase in trade costs. A UK without a single market would dangerously decrease trade between them and the EU. The Bank of England, OECD, and HM Treasury all concluded that a UK outside of the EU would be less attractive to foreign investors. This agrees with the economic and political risk reducing trade and FDI. The UK is also expected to face slower economic growth under most scenarios of Brexit, and the UK would not be better off in the coming decades.
The most relevant conclusion is that the impact of Brexit depends on trade agreements with the EU and the rest of the world after leaving. In the UK and the rest of Europe, there are certain sectors that would be more affected by an exit. The UK would have a negative impact on trade, both with the EU and internationally. Finally, it would be more difficult for the UK to negotiate a “good agreement” with the EU because of its economy size and trade openness. Thus, leaving would cause a larger negative impact on the EU than on the UK. In particular, the UK is concerned about the special effects of certain aspects of leaving the EU: the impact on trade, the impact on investment, the impact on economic growth, and the impact on financial markets.
The third aspect refers to the probable political and social trauma Brexit will bring to the United Kingdom and the European Union. Immediately after the Brexit referendum, some politicians and social scientists began to circumscribe the damage to economic dimensions almost exclusively. They argue that the political and social consequences of Brexit are connected to the economy by referring to the reduced size of Britain’s economy. In so doing, these claims give little attention to the probable effects on governance, sovereignty, immigration, identity politics, and the welfare of people in the UK and EU.
To begin with, Brexit has upturned governance in the UK and EU. It has diminished the EU’s ability to govern by removing the most powerful state on the Union’s borders, and which it shares its own political culture with. To contain the general disapproval that member-states had after the EU offered Cameron a renegotiation, the UK was given one of the largest opt-outs in the Union. Part of the UK’s referendum result was not only a dissatisfaction with Brussels, but also general European attitudes that resemble the UK’s. In Britain, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat administrations harmed local welfare states by using harsh austerity policies. The EU responded to investors’ needs by cutting social spending, in Greece and Italy too. The EU used European Intergovernmental Method (EIM), as Henry Farrell and John Quiggin argue, to bolster the investor requirements in the “destruction of the Greek economy,” where fierce austerity has been imposed to “send a harsh signal.” The UK relied on its veto power to curtail the EU-neoliberal tendencies against the welfare state when it could. However, this has shown the limits of how an industrialist state like Britain can still row against the global current. After Brexit, the UK’s opposition will be missing in this and other future scenarios.
In sum, the political consequences of Brexit are seen as a period of introspection and national reassertion. Some of our respondents believe that Brexit may also have implications for European integration and become an example for various ‘exits’ from the EU. In the economic dimension, the UK can rebrand itself in the global arena and engage with new trade partners using its newfound flexibility and freedom of action. Finally, Brexit as a process can help the United Kingdom to rediscover its post-industrial metropolitan identity and help to heal internal differences if it associates with wider domestic political and social change towards greater regional autonomy and opportunities for regions to make decisions based on their particular circumstances.
The divisions within the EU itself, already visible in the very long and difficult negotiations with London, have indicated how intrinsically difficult and uncertain it is for the remaining Member States when dealing with such a large and complex situation as the UK’s exit from the union and the single market, to ensure equal treatment of the special interests of all other Member States. European institutions believe that the UK’s exit will force internal adjustments (e.g., reform) that will allow states’ opinions to be coordinated and resolved more quickly. However, some of the Member States do not consider deep reform viable. Therefore, there is intense uncertainty about Europe’s own future. New standards of EU relations with the UK and non-member countries, the economic and market consequences of the UK’s exit, and a review of European economic competitiveness are considered the main challenges of the transition period.
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